Published: Oct 29, 2008 12:30 AM
Modified: Oct 29, 2008 03:13 AM
CHAPEL HILL -
The recent release of a consultant's report suggesting a new general aviation airport would inject $40 million to $53 million each year into Orange County's economy has folks buzzing.
Some, like local legislator Bill Faison, who restricted a search for a new airport site to Orange County, love the prospect of that large an injection of new revenue here. Others, like folks in White Cross who fear the airport might wind up in their backyards, are less thrilled.
Economist Mitch Renkow read the report and emerged skeptical. A professor of agricultural and resource economics at N.C. State University, Renkow is well versed in economic development reports and impact studies. The study, commissioned by UNC and done by Talbert & Bright, is based on a previous study by the same firm that examined possible sites for a new airport.
To Renkow, the projected economic impact doesn't ring true.
He spoke with the Chapel Hill News about his thoughts. Here are excerpts from that conversation.
CHAPEL HILL NEWS: You don't think too much of the economic development numbers. Can you explain further?
RENKOW: The $40 to $53 million number is based on a previous study of all airports in North Carolina. A lot of the real believability, the credibility of those exercises, come at the very first part when you look at what the particular entity is bringing to the county. What is it that an airport really brings in terms of jobs? That information was based on surveys. They got back information. And some of it, the numbers just look implausibly large.
The biggest thing -- they took these numbers based on airports, some are small, some are big, and counties are different. In Orange County, there's a perfectly plausible airport nearby, meaning RDU.
CHN: So you're saying the information put into the equation is faulty?
RENKOW: Yes. I'm not really interested in critiquing the original study. But the point is, once they had those numbers, and you know each number selected was specific to a particular location, none was specific to Orange County. It's not something you want to base a big-time public policy decision on. It just strikes me -- it may be that the assessment is accurate, but you'd only know that by doing something very specific to Orange County.
CHN: You also dispute the notion that every dollar generated by a new airport would be a new dollar to the county. Why?
RENKOW: The users of the airport are people who presumably live in Chapel Hill or Orange County. They weren't going to bring new money into where they live. The users are not bringing money into the economic system. You hear about boosters coming in to go to Carolina football games. OK, they come and go out to dinner and do some stuff and hang out on Franklin Street, but the thing is, would they have done that even if there wasn't an airport in Orange County? Would they have flown into RDU instead? Would they have come to Chapel Hill anyhow? If that's the case, it's inappropriate to say the money they're bringing is associated with the airport.
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