CHAPEL HILL - A new study says Carolina North would be a boon for Orange County and the Triangle but a burden for the town of Chapel Hill.

Consultants found Carolina North could generate a net gain for local governments of more than $40 million over its first 15 years, weighing new tax revenues against the cost of government services to serve the campus and growth generated by it.

Orange County and the Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools would receive nearly all of the net benefit, within a range of $37 million to $44 million. The consultants predict nearly 640 new students in the city and 60 in the county schools at a cost of up to $65 million over 15 years. But new revenues up to $109 million would more than offset those costs, they say.

The bulk of the new expenses would fall on the town of Chapel Hill, with not enough new revenue to offset them. The consultants at TischlerBise projected new town spending at around $40 million over 15 years to cover new services and infrastructure that the campus and associated homes and businesses will demand.

They think new revenues will come within $1 to $3 million of covering those costs, but that's including the net benefit from off-campus homes and businesses the consultants predict will spring up to meet demand associated with the campus. The consultants are anticipating the shortfall because of the cost of building a new fire station the campus will demand some time after 2020.

Though the university disposes of its own trash and has its own police department, UNC receives fire protection services from the town of Chapel Hill. Carolina North executive director Jack Evans said the state will need to subsidize the Chapel Hill Fire Department to cover firefighters' work on campus.

"Those are services that we're receiving, and we think that the university and the state have an obligation to step up and do something about that," he said.

The question is just how much the university will pay. The narrow gap between costs and benefits to Chapel Hill depends on more than $25 million coming into the town's coffers from off-campus sources, as does the projection that Carrboro will receive about $1.5 million in such "indirect" revenue.

"I would need to be persuaded that those numbers are real or close enough to be plausible at least," said Carrboro Mayor Mark Chilton.

Chapel Hill Town Manager Roger Stancil went further, saying the town is not interested in the indirect benefits, but only the direct net impact. Subtracting direct revenues from direct expenses would leave the town in a $12 million hole over the 15-year period. Stancil does not think the town would accept payments of much less than that from the university.

"That would be a subject of much debate," said Stancil. "The study probably raises more questions than answers."

Reliable numbers, of course, depend on the consultants' ability to predict the future.

Julie Herlands, principal with TischlerBise, said the study is based on current living, working and commuting patterns that could change, affecting variables like property tax revenues and the cost of maintaining roads.

"Obviously, there's a level at which all of this ends up being speculative," said Chilton, whose town would see a net annual $50,000 gain, according to the study. "They're trying to make an educated guess."

The study suggests that Carolina North will create approximately 8,600 new jobs in the first 15 years. About 3,600 of those would be on the campus. Close to that same number would sprout outside Orange County, and about 1,600 would rise within the county but off-campus.

Most of the off-campus jobs would be in the retail and service industry to meet demand from Carolina North employees, whom the consultants expect to live in Orange but also Alamance, Chatham, Durham and Wake counties.

"That might or might not be true, but it seems to me it's the right assumption to make," said Evans.

TischlerBise gave UNC its computerized model to plug in, changing variables in the future to yield new projections. Major improvements to the public transit system such as light-rail service, for example, would probably change the assumptions on which the study is based.

TischlerBise will present its findings to the public March 31, and fiscal equity may arise as a topic of tonight's meeting between the Chapel Hill Town Council and the UNC Board of Trustees.