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Published: Mar 09, 2008 08:41 AM
Modified: Mar 09, 2008 08:41 AM

What will stimulus package stimulate?
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As the so-called economic stimulus package kicked off by President George W. Bush and heartily backed by Congress winds its way from Washington into the hands of taxpayers one must wonder whether such a quick fix will provide any real long-term help for our precarious economy.

The part of the package that's receiving most of the attention is the $600 rebate for individuals and $1,200 for couples. In the long run, however, the ones who stand to receive the bigger dividends might be those who can refinance their expensive home loans at lower rates. For one year, the government-backed mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have new limits on loans they can support, moving from $417,000 to $729,750 under the new guidelines. This may also help those trying to sell expensive real estate to get more prospects through the door.

The loan-limit increase is proposed for one year but should provide some relief to those suffering from mortgage strangulation and encourage others to look at high-priced property as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be absorbing some of the new risk for those looking to buy homes in mid- and high-end markets.

Founded by the federal government, the primary role of these companies is to expand the flow of mortgage funds in all communities, at all times, under all economic conditions to help lower the costs of home buying. Seems like it's time for Fannie and Freddie to rise to the occasion, but they still must lend responsibly.

Those questioning the increase in mortgage limits understandably wonder whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can actually cover the new boundaries as currently the organizations support some $4 trillion in mortgage debt. Can they really back this and additional trillions?

No other single figure is as important on economic activity as interest rates. These determine the "cost" and availability of money and credit that drive the economy. Jobs, mortgages, inflation and investment returns are each dependent on whichever way interest rates move -- no wonder economists and financial talk show hosts are nearly obsessed with interest rate predictions and commentary.

In simplest terms, if rates rise, the "cost" of money increases and it becomes "expensive" to borrow. Banks and businesses can do less when their interest expense increases. When rates decline, money becomes "cheaper" to borrow and interest expenses drop as well, meaning more money is available for investment. This creates businesses and jobs, sells homes, helps the country in its balance of trade and puts less pressure on governments to raise taxes.

So which way are rates going? Lately down. This will definitely help those with a firm financial footing and who are in the market for a mortgage. They will be able to borrow money cheaply.

Those having difficulty getting a loan from a bank for a home may now be able to get one from one of these two, private companies -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This will probably help jumpstart home sales because part of the problem of this new real estate environment is the inaction of banks, many of which are still feeling the sting of the subprime slowdown.

Actions such as lowering interest rates take time to affect the general economy but ultimately should have a greater impact on it than one-time rebate payments. These may temporarily help retailers but probably will not do much for middle-income homeowners struggling with mortgage payments. What's really needed to help get our financial houses in order is a prescription that will cure Americans from their addiction to risky debt.

Encouraging consumers to run to the mall will only put many of them deeper into the financial mess they're already in. Unwise spending is exactly what's responsible for the current "near recession." It is precisely not what middle-income Americans need when compared to the rising price of energy and education, a muddled heath care system and a questionable future for Social Security.

Nor will it help lower the debt caused by our fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. At about the same time we receive our rebate checks we'll also be getting income tax refunds -- putting the combined bonus at around $3,000 -- about the price of a decent family vacation or a down payment on a new car that we might otherwise not be able to afford and probably shouldn't buy.

For those whose financial foundations are not very secure, when the rebates arrive, before heading to the mall, think of what the rich do and how they got there. Consider it a one-time gift that's to be used where it will do the most good -- knock down some debt, help a young person pay their student loan, make some energy-efficiency upgrades in your home, or invest it in a tax-advantaged bond or mutual fund.


Mark Hall is an independent financial adviser with Market Street Advisors in Smithfield.
2008 The Chapel Hill News
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