EAST
1. Boston (66-16) vs. 8. Atlanta (37-45)The Celtics resurrected their storied franchise with bold off-season moves to acquire aging superstars Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. From a neutral perspective, they're a great story since KG has always been one of the league's best and most loyal players (in a time when loyalty is virtually non-existent in the pro game), and fellow stars Allen and Paul Pierce are well-liked as well.A Carolina fan can take pride in the fact that Pierce -- a six-time All-Star with his first real shot at an NBA title -- is Roy Williams' most successful recruit from his Kansas days. (Or are we now sworn to hate former Jayhawks?) I choose to continue to support ALL of Roy's boys, especially since many of his ex-Kansas players, Pierce included, showed up in force at his Hall of Fame induction.The Hawks are another great team for UNC fans to cheer for. Marvin Williams, who managed to cram a game-winning shot against Duke and a national championship into his one fantastic season in baby blue, starts for the Hawks and has improved steadily in his three pro seasons. Atlanta, which made the playoffs for the first time since 1999, also features assistant coach Larry Drew. Drew's son, Larry Drew II, is headed to Chapel Hill next fall to help Smith Center fans replace the "Q" chants for graduating senior Quentin Thomas with a new "Drew" tune.However, this series doesn't promise to be very interesting.Boston torched the abysmal Eastern Conference all season long and beat Atlanta in all three of the teams' regular-season meetings. The Celtics have already said anything less than a trip to the NBA Finals would be a disappointment, while the Hawks seem happy just to be in the playoffs.PW: The Hawks proved to be a dangerous young team early in November with a season-opening win against the Dallas Mavericks. Led by Joe Johnson's sharp shooting (21.7 ppg), Josh Smith's uncanny knack for swatting shots (2.8 bpg) and runner-up rookie of the year Al Horford's tenacity on the boards (9.7 rpg, 3.1 offensive rpg), the Hawks will play with energy and enthusiasm that is characteristic of a young playoff team. However, Boston's defense never takes a night off and the top-seeded Celtics will easily come away with the series behind Garnett, Pierce and Allen. Also key will be new acquisition Sam Cassell, a former teammate of KG's whose playoff experience will prove valuable down the stretch.2. Detroit (59-23) vs. 7. Philadelphia (40-42)Detroit has been to five straight Eastern Conference finals with Philly native and ex-UNC standout Rasheed Wallace, the game's most versatile big man. The City of Brotherly Love, meanwhile, hasn't seen a championship since 1983 in any major sport despite having the likes of the 76ers, Eagles, Flyers and Phillies in town.Philadelphia has no important Carolina connections and somehow still has a roster spot for Shavlik Randolph -- but that is mostly a laughing matter. The former Broughton-star-turned-Duke-flop has seen action in just nine games this season and only scored in two of them, leaving him with averages of 0.9 points and 0.6 fouls per game.Detroit's core of Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince has kept the Pistons as contenders for the past half-decade, and they will surely hope to skate past the Sixers. Incidentally, another reason to feel good about a Detroit franchise, which has been dominant ever since then-coach Larry Brown built it back up, is that Hamilton is responsible for denying Duke a national title. Rip's Most Outstanding Player performance in the 1999 NCAA Tournament helped UConn's Huskies knock off the Blue Devils in the title game.PW: The 76ers boast a promising young group with rising star Andre Iguodala, defensive fortress Samuel Dalembert and rookie Thaddeus Young, who has successfully integrated himself into the 76ers offense since the All-Star break. Philly is still no match for perennial Eastern Conference favorites Detroit Pistons, who are loaded with heavy artillery at every position. Billups' competitive fire will cause him to outperform Sixers' point guard Miller and Detroit will take the series.3. Orlando (52-30) vs. 6. Toronto (41-41)The Magic feature irrelevant Duke ex-demigod J.J. Redick, whose career has been all downhill ever since his senior year ended in tears when LSU beat the Devils in the Sweet 16. The former National Player of the Year and current ACC record holder for career points (a mark Tyler Hansbrough would surely break if he were to return for a fourth year at Carolina), Redick's production has actually gone down from his rookie year; Orlando has improved and doesn't seem to have many minutes for their 2006 lottery pick. Redick appeared in 34 games this season, averaging eight minutes and four points per outing.All laughter aside, this series promises to be one of the highlights of the first round as it pits budding superstars Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard. The best, young big men the game has to offer, Bosh and Howard are friends and elevate their games each time their teams clash. The left-handed Bosh, who spent one year at Georgia Tech before heading to the pros, has been a model of scoring consistency in the last three years: He's posted 22.5, 22.6 and 22.3 points per game and shot 50 percent each season. Howard, meanwhile, has emerged in his third season since jumping straight from college. The Slam Dunk Contest winner averages 21 points and 14 rebounds per game, shooting a blistering 60 percent. One key difference between the stars, however, is Howard's 59 percent rate from the line (yes, worse than his field goal percentage) against Bosh's 84.4 percent clip at the charity stripe.PW: The Magic won 2 of 3 regular-season meetings against the Raptors. Howard -- whose combination of athleticism and size has not been seen since the 1990s brought Shaquille O'Neal -- is improving every year and will his defense (his blocks-per-game average is up to 2.2) as well as his offense. Rashard Lewis is also a threat to post 20 points every night with efficient 3-point shooting (40.9%) and has shined since moving to Orlando this season.4. Cleveland (45-37) vs. 5. Washington (43-39)Finally, a Duke vs. UNC matchup!When Cleveland General Manager Danny Ferry found his brand-new office was painted Carolina blue as a prank, he was apparently far more furious than amused. Even though the Cavs feature LeBron James, who broke Brad Daugherty's career franchise scoring record this season -- as a 23-year-old -- I can't support a roster that was assembled by Ferry.The Wizards, meanwhile, have a pair of Tar Heel starters in Antawn Jamison and Brendan Haywood. Jamison never became a superstar after winning National Player of the Year at UNC, but he has averaged at least 19 points per game in eight of the last nine seasons (and the remaining season he got 15 per game and was the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year). This year, he has increased his overall production to 21.4 ppg and 10.2 rbg, the first time he's averaged a double-double, to help the Wiz clinch a playoff spot with an ailing Gilbert Arenas inactive for much of the season.The Cavs made it all the way to the NBA Finals last season, so their regular-season record shows anything but progress. But a deadline deal by Ferry shook up their roster, and time will tell if they are more playoff ready than they were a year ago, when it was James and James alone carrying the team.The Wizards, meanwhile, have kept Arenas in a bench role, but, if Agent Zero gets into a groove, they could be dangerous.PW: UNC hero Antawn Jamison has been playing the best basketball of his career, and the return of Caron Butler and Agent Zero from injury is also a bright spot for the Wizards. However, in a tight series, King James and the reigning Eastern Conference Champions will rule the series. Winter signing Ben Wallace will rebound and defend with a huge chip on his shoulder, determined to prove his worth to critics of the big Cleveland-Chicago trade Ferry orchestrated at the deadline.WEST
1. L.A. Lakers (57-25) vs. 8. Denver (50-32)This is a matchup of teams without Carolina players on the court but with Dean Smith disciples in key roles. The Nuggets, coached by George Karl, had just gotten into the ultra-competitive Western Conference playoffs when they were shaken up by star Carmelo Anthony's DUI last week. The Lakers, meanwhile, went from a summer of fierce drama, in which Kobe Bryant called for GM Mitch Kupchak's head, to earning the top seed for the postseason.How? Kupchak pulled off a miracle. He landed Spanish sensation Pau Gasol for practically nothing just before the trade deadline. With Gasol in the lineup and veteran Derek Fisher added to the squad this season, the Lakers have steamrolled to an outstanding record and now can look forward to getting back injured center Andrew Bynum for the playoffs. Bryant quit running his mouth this year and had one of his best seasons ever, which will be rewarded with his first MVP trophy.Denver is incredibly talented for an eight-seed -- such is the nature of the Western Conference. Their poor showing in last year's first round against San Antonio is a distant memory now that they have Kenyon Martin back, and role players J.R. Smith (who was on his way to Chapel Hill until he decided at the last minute to go straight to the NBA) and Linas Kleiza have increased their production. But, dealing with the Lakers will be one tall order for Karl and the Nuggets. PW: Allen Iverson has been playing the second-most efficient season of his career, shooting 45.8 percent from the field. His turnovers this year are down to 2.99 per game after losing the ball 4.04 times per contest in 2007. This can be attributed to Carmelo bearing some of the defense's attention, while Smith, Kleiza and last year's defensive player of the year Marcus Camby will be enough to give the Lakers a scare or two. However, against a stacked lineup (Bryant, Gasol and do-everything man Lamar Odom), the Lakers should easily take the series. How far they go in the playoffs will depend heavily on two factors: Kobe's leadership and the reintegration of Tracy Morgan look-alike Bynum into the Lakers' offensive scheme.2. New Orleans (56-26) vs. 7. Dallas (51-31)Well I think it's safe to say no one in North Carolina feels a warm and fuzzy connection with the former Charlotte Hornets franchise. A bitter breakup between the Queen City and the Hornets was followed by the Bobcats moving into Charlotte with a truckload of UNC alums. (By the way, the Bobcats just acquired one of the ugliest venue names in professional sports: Charlotte Bobcats Arena is now Time Warner Cable Arena. We here at the Chapel Hill News have henceforth resolved to make a concerted effort just to refer to "The Charlotte arena.")Dallas features veteran Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace's teammate at UNC. The 2007 Mavericks had a monumentally disappointing run end in the first round, where they were sent out by the eight-seed Golden State Warriors. This year, Dallas will be the underdog every game. Point guard Jason Kidd is desperate for a title run, and the Mavs' acquisition of him is yet to be proven smart. German star Dirk Nowitzki is healthy again, though, so this will be Kidd's chance to carry a team to glory.As for the local connections to the Hornets' roster, it's tough to decide how to evaluate Chris Paul. On the one hand, he is locally grown, raised in Forsyth County before attending Wake Forest. During one notable ACC game, he infamously punched a player in the place where the sun don't shine. On the other hand, that player was N.C. State's Julius Hodge, for whom there is no love lost from Carolina faithful. Paul is certainly a great player, though, averaging 21 points, 12 assists and three steals per game this year in leading the surprising Hornets to the No. 2 seed.PW: Paul, who could be the MVP runner-up behind Bryant, is having a magnificent season, leading the league in steals and assists. His play will determine the outcome of the Hornets' postseason. Reigning MVP Nowitzki, on the other hand, has not been playing up to standards set by his performance last season, shooting a mediocre 35.9 percent from beyond the arc. Having sacrificed a promising young point guard in Devin Harris, the Mavericks fully expect future Hall-of-Famer Jason Kidd to carry the team toward a championship ring. But no player, including Jason Kidd, is able to guard Chris Paul and the consistent 20-10 performances from David West will bring the Hornets success.3. San Antonio (56-26) vs. 6. Phoenix (55-27)Talented Grant Hill joined the Suns this year in a bid to get onto a title contender before his countless injuries finish him off. From a neutral perspective, it's hard not to cheer for Phoenix in this one, anyway. Not only do the Suns feature the exciting tandem of Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, they've got Shaquille O'Neal throwing his 36-year-old body into the mix now. The deal bringing Shaq to Arizona was a future-mortgager, with the Diesel and Nash both on their last legs.The Spurs, who have four NBA titles since 1999, have assembled a great all-around team led by Wake Forest grad Tim Duncan. But after San Antonio's highly controversial defeat of the Suns last season, in which Stoudemire and Boris Diaw got suspended for the final game after "leaving" the bench when Robert Horry body-slammed Nash -- quite unnecessarily -- late in the game, I will be glad to see the Spurs exit the playoffs. It will be easier said than done for Phoenix, though.PW: The Spurs have had another successful season with Manu Ginobli, Tony Parker and Duncan as anchors for the defense-oriented San Antonio franchise. Veterans Bruce Bowen, Duncan and Michael Finley are slowly wearing down, though that of course is also the case for Shaq and Nash. However, I believe Phoenix will come out hard with Nash's desire to earn a championship ring and Shaq's determination to prove he is still a force to be reckoned with. In a tight series, the winner will be the team playing with more intensity (which doesn't equate to the frequent dirty play of Bowen) and that should be Phoenix.4. Utah (54-28) vs. 5. Houston (55-27)This is a rematch of last year's first round, only that the Rockets are without injured Chinese center Yao Ming. Utah features ex-Blue Devil Carlos Boozer, but they are led by point guard Deron Williams. I enjoy watching Williams play because it reminds me how Carolina beat the mighty Illini in the 2005 championship game.Williams' former Illinois teammate Luther Head is on the other side of the court in this series, playing for Houston along with quintessential Dookie Shane Battier. It's a shame both teams can't lose this series.But the Rockets' unquestionable Goliath is Tracy McGrady, a cousin of Vince Carter's and a product of Durham Mount Zion (where he played with Max Owens -- remember him?) It gets said about five times a day, but it's still worth noting that, as good as McGrady is, he has still never won a playoff series. Last year, the Rockets crumbled even after T-Mac announced he was taking the team on his back, and this year they'll have to find a way to win without Ming.PW: Utah's exceptional home record (37-4) will be the X-factor in this matchup. The Rockets played the Jazz three times this season with a healthy Tracy McGrady and lost the past two. Even though they posted the second-highest win streak in NBA history this year with Ming hurt, Houston will have a tough time scrounging up wins without Yao sharing the offensive load with T-Mac. Williams, Boozer, and Mehmet Okur should snatch this series away from the Rockets.